Daily

The yen was the only market to move more than twice its typical day on Monday: USD/JPY rose 0.43%, 2.5 times normal, to close at 157.49, while every other currency, metal and coin we measured stayed inside twice its typical day.

The yen rose 0.87% against the dollar on Thursday, 5.2 times its typical day, as US Treasury yields fell 16 to 17 basis points, while silver fell 5.99% and bitcoin 4.02%.

UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September, above the 3.4% forecast, yet sterling’s first jump faded inside ten minutes; the day’s sharpest moves came at 19:54 UK, when Gulf headlines knocked gold and ether together.

The pound closed Tuesday at its highest level in 22 trading days after UK unemployment fell to 4.7% against a 4.9% forecast, and this morning the Office for National Statistics put September inflation at 3.5%, above the 3.4% forecast.

Canada’s September inflation report drew Monday’s largest scheduled reaction: USD/CAD rose 0.17% in the ten minutes after it, 7.4 times a normal move for that minute, and most of it was still there an hour later.

Brent fell 1.7% to $107.96 in Asian trade after touching $110 on Friday, and gold and silver opened the week higher as Treasury yields eased, while the pound and the yen sat within 0.02% of Friday’s New York close.

The Australian dollar was the only major currency to lose ground against the US dollar on Thursday, closing at 0.6920, its lowest New York close in 67 trading days, after official data showed Australia shed about 39,000 jobs in September.

September’s US inflation report came in hotter than forecast, and the reaction stuck: USD/JPY moved 11.9 times a normal ten minutes and kept 92% of it, while silver fell 6.0% to its lowest New York close in 63 trading days.

The dollar fell against every major currency on Tuesday, led by a 0.45% gain in the New Zealand dollar, while silver dropped 1.84% to its lowest New York close in 50 trading days. September’s US consumer price index, due at 13:30 UK, is the one Tier 1 event on today’s calendar.

The euro closed Monday at 1.1154 against the dollar, its weakest New York close in our records, which begin on June 11, and 3.8% below its 20-day high, on a day when Tokyo and the US cash Treasury market were shut for holidays.

Brent crude fell 1.72% to $102.92 a barrel in thin Asian trade after the US President announced on Sunday an immediate energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine that, according to media reports, neither side has yet confirmed.

The US Treasury sold $22 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday with primary dealers left holding less than 7% of the issue, and the 10-year yield closed 6 basis points lower at 5.22%, according to the Treasury’s daily curve.

Americas Session — 12:00 UTC Session Overview European trade closed with a broadly defensive tone across risk assets. Eurozone data continued to underwhelm, with PMI readings reinforcing the narrative of a stagnant continental growth backdrop and keeping ECB easing expectations in focus. ECB Governing Council speakers offered little fresh guidance, reiterating data dependence while acknowledging…

Europe Session — 06:00 UTC The Asian session closed with broad USD firmness carrying over from late US trade, with limited fresh catalysts out of the region itself. Japanese markets were attentive to USD/JPY holding in the mid-150s, keeping intervention risk squarely on the radar, while BoJ communication offered no new policy signals. Chinese data…

Asia Session — 23:00 UTC US/Americas Session Recap The US session closed with the dollar holding near its 18-month highs after the DXY briefly tagged 102.53 before settling back into the 101.8–102.2 range. The ISM Services PMI printed at 54.9, a touch below consensus, but the prices-paid component surged to 74.0 — its highest reading…

Americas Session — 12:00 UTC Session Introduction European markets closed out a choppy session Tuesday, with the ECB’s latest Governing Council communications reaffirming a data-dependent stance while offering little fresh directional catalyst. Eurozone PMI readings continued to print on the soft side, reinforcing the narrative of a fragile growth backdrop and keeping EUR/USD under modest…

Europe Session — 06:00 UTC Asian Session Recap: Asian markets closed with a cautiously risk-on tone, though price action was relatively contained. USD pairs held broadly firm overnight, with USD/JPY remaining elevated in the mid-150s as the BoJ refrained from fresh commentary and Japanese authorities offered no new intervention signals. Chinese data continued to weigh…

Asia Session — 23:00 UTC Session Overview The U.S. session closed on a complicated note. September nonfarm payrolls printed a deeply disappointing 29,000 against consensus of 90,000, initially pressuring the dollar — but the greenback recovered intraday as Treasury yields stabilized and risk sentiment improved. The DXY is holding near 102.50, notching a third consecutive…

Americas Session — 12:00 UTC Session Introduction European trade closed on a cautious note, with EUR/USD drifting toward the lower end of its 1.154–1.155 range as Eurozone PMI data continued to disappoint and ECB Governing Council speakers offered no material upgrade to the growth or inflation outlook. Cable held above the 1.26 handle but showed…

Europe Session — 06:00 UTC Asian markets closed with a cautious tone overnight. Japanese equities edged lower as USD/JPY held firm in the mid-150s, keeping intervention watch active following recent sharp intraday reversals consistent with official FX operations. Chinese data continued to weigh on sentiment, with industrial and credit indicators remaining soft — a headwind…

Asia Session — 23:00 UTC The US/Americas session closed on a cautious note heading into the weekend. Precious metals sold off broadly — gold dropped $36.70 to close near $4,139.80, silver fell 0.97% to test the critical $60 handle, platinum slid 1.34% to $1,691, and palladium shed 1.03% to around $1,152. The move reflected a…

Americas Session — 12:00 UTC Session Introduction European trade closed with mixed signals across asset classes. Euro-area PMI data continued to reflect a soft growth backdrop, reinforcing expectations that the ECB will maintain its cautious, data-dependent posture while stop-short of committing to a clear easing timetable. EUR/USD drifted toward the lower end of its 1.154–1.155…

Europe Session — 06:00 UTC The Asian session closed on a cautiously constructive note, with markets digesting a mixed set of regional signals. Japanese yen continued to trade under pressure against the dollar, with USD/JPY holding in the mid-150s despite residual market vigilance around potential Ministry of Finance intervention. Chinese trade and activity data offered…

Asia Session — 23:00 UTC The US session just closed on a firmly dollar-bullish note. A stronger-than-expected ADP employment print — 90,000 versus 73,000 expected — and an upward revision to final GDP to 2.2% from a prior estimate of 1.5% reinforced the narrative of US economic resilience. DXY moved above 102.00, touching levels described…