Morning Briefing — Tuesday, October 13, 2026
The euro closed Monday at 1.1154 against the dollar, its weakest New York close in our records, which begin on June 11, and 3.8% below its 20-day high, on a day when Tokyo and the US cash Treasury market were shut for holidays.
Markets
| Instrument | Last | Change | 20-dayrange |
|---|---|---|---|
| Currencies | |||
| EUR/USD | 1.11591.1152 – 1.1217 | -0.37% | 1% |
| GBP/USD | 1.32061.3201 – 1.3261 | -0.24% | 7% |
| USD/JPY | 158.27158.07 – 158.75 | -0.22% | 87% |
| USD/CHF | 0.83360.8288 – 0.8348 | +0.42% | 80% |
| AUD/USD | 0.69530.6955 – 0.6995 | -0.09% | 19% |
| NZD/USD | 0.56000.5583 – 0.5619 | -0.22% | 8% |
| USD/CAD | 1.4283 | +0.18% | — |
| USD/CNH | 6.69606.6905 – 6.6955 | +0.02% | 16% |
| Dollar index | 102.45 | -0.14% | — |
| Precious metals | |||
| Gold | 4,179.424,154.44 – 4,216.89 | +0.18% | 34% |
| Silver | 60.1960.09 – 61.43 | -0.19% | 19% |
| Crypto | |||
| Bitcoin | 82,80782,312 – 84,352 | -0.94% | 63% |
| Ether | 2,489.242,504.26 – 2,579.88 | -2.09% | 27% |
Change since the previous close; crypto over 24 hours. Small figures under each price are yesterday's low and high, to the New York close. The 20-day bar shows where the latest price sits between the 20-day low (left) and high (right); Below or Above means outside that range. Indicative prices, UK 04:24.
Rates and risk
| Instrument | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US 2-year | — | n/a |
| US 10-year | 5.200% | -4 bp |
| German 10-year | 3.470% | -2 bp |
| UK 10-year | 5.446% | +2 bp |
| S&P 500 | 7,793 | -0.06% |
| Nikkei 225 | 67,250 | -2.58% |
| Brent | 105.21 | -1.35% |
| VIX | 15.21 | n/a |
Overview
The dollar finished Monday higher against every major currency we measure, but broadly rather than deeply: on the Currency Compass, one common dollar move explained only 42% of the day's price action, below a six-month norm of just over half. Oil set the rhythm, falling in early Asian trade after the US President said on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an "energy ceasefire", then recovering as Kyiv said Russian attacks on its power system continued; the dollar and gold traced the round trip in mirror image. This morning the story is Asian equities: the Nikkei 225 is down 2.58% on its return from a holiday, and South Korea's main index fell more than 5%, briefly triggering a trading curb, on concerns about chipmakers, according to media reports. Today is the first full session since Friday for Tokyo and US cash bonds, against a light data diary.
