Americas Session — Market Briefing – June 28, 2026

Americas Session — 12:00 UTC

Session Introduction

European trade wrapped on a cautious note, with EUR/USD grinding near the 1.154–1.155 handle as softer Eurozone PMI readings reinforced the narrative of fragile continental growth and kept ECB easing speculation simmering. Peripheral sovereign spreads were broadly steady, and ECB speakers offered little new directional guidance, leaving the euro unable to mount a meaningful challenge of the 1.1600 resistance band. Sterling similarly underperformed through the London close, with GBP/USD trading close to the 1.26 zone after UK data continued to flag a fragile growth backdrop — wage trends are cooling just enough to keep BoE cut speculation alive, capping the pound's topside.

Precious metals held constructive through the European morning, with gold anchored above the $4,330 area and silver maintaining its footing near $70–71/oz. The broader metals complex drew continued support from geopolitical risk premia and the residual tailwind of tariff-related safe-haven demand. Crypto markets were similarly steady, with Bitcoin holding above $64k and the total crypto market cap sitting in the $2.35–2.45T range heading into the New York open.

The Americas session now takes over with the primary macro focus firmly on US data and Fed communication. Any meaningful surprise in US activity or inflation prints will drive the next decisive leg in DXY, rates, and by extension gold, equities, and crypto. Quarter-end rebalancing flows also warrant attention through today's close, as position squaring across asset classes can amplify intraday moves.

Foreign Exchange

US Dollar Index (DXY)

The dollar enters the Americas session trading firm in the upper-104 to 105 area, near multi-week highs. US labor market resilience, sticky core services inflation, and the Fed's sustained data-dependent posture have kept real yields elevated, providing the primary structural support for DXY. Resistance is seen at 105.50–106.00; a clean break there reopens the 107+ zone visited during prior risk-off phases. Key support sits at 103.50–104.00. The baseline remains moderately strong USD while real yields hold and US data continue to outperform; a sequential softening in inflation and jobs data represents the clearest turning point risk.

EUR/USD

Macro Drivers: EUR/USD is trading near its weakest levels in approximately two months, with the rate differential and relative growth outlook tilting clearly toward the dollar. The ECB has left its deposit rate on hold with guidance remaining data-dependent, while the Fed maintains its target at 3.50–3.75% with a higher-for-longer posture. Eurozone PMIs and industrial production have been soft, removing any near-term catalyst for a euro recovery. Core inflation persistence on the US side further cements the rate divergence narrative.

Technical Detail: Spot is trading near 1.154–1.155, with immediate support at the 1.1500–1.1525 psychological zone and next support at 1.1460–1.1475, a prior swing low where sellers previously covered. Resistance is layered at 1.1600–1.1630, then 1.1700 where moving average clusters have previously capped rallies. Price structure is mildly bearish-to-sideways.

Trend: The sell-on-rally bias is intact while the pair trades below approximately 1.1700. Dips toward 1.1500–1.1450 are likely to attract real-money support but not a trend reversal absent a meaningful shift in the data outlook. Direction over the medium term hinges on whether Eurozone data stabilize and whether US disinflation resumes; until those conditions are met, the path of least resistance is sideways-to-lower.

GBP/USD

Macro Drivers: Cable has underperformed EUR modestly over the past week as UK data softened and markets trimmed BoE tightening expectations. The BoE is holding at a restrictive rate, with recent minutes revealing a split MPC gradually shifting toward eventual easing as headline inflation falls, though services inflation and wages are keeping that process slow and cautious. The UK-US rate spread has narrowed, limiting GBP upside against a broadly firm dollar.

Technical Detail: GBP/USD is trading in the 1.26–1.27 area with support at 1.2600–1.2620, which represents recent lows and a key psychological level. Deeper support is found at 1.2520–1.2550. Resistance bands are located at 1.2750–1.2800, then 1.2850–1.2900 on any broader risk-on impulse.

Trend: The base case remains a range trade of roughly 1.25–1.29, with directional bias following global risk sentiment and US data surprises. Downside risks are UK growth disappointments and any dovish BoE shift; upside risks are a stronger global risk rally paired with a softening US inflation trajectory. The overall posture is neutral with a mild downside skew while the broader USD remains firm.

USD/JPY

Macro Drivers: USD/JPY remains elevated around the mid-150s, at levels that have previously triggered Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance intervention operations. The primary driver is the wide policy divergence — the Fed remains at restrictive levels while the BoJ, despite exiting negative rates, maintains a materially accommodative stance with a still-large balance sheet and compressed yields relative to global peers. Japanese authorities have explicitly signaled discomfort with rapid yen depreciation, and repeated sharp intraday spikes and reversals are consistent with official operations leaning against disorderly moves.

Technical Detail: Support is located in the low-150s, coinciding with the prior intervention zone; a break below that level would open the 148–149 area. Resistance sits near the upper-150s recent highs, beyond which the risk of heavier official response intensifies significantly.

Trend: The pair presents genuine two-way risk — structural upward pressure from the yield differential versus sharp downside spike risk from intervention. If US yields drift lower on weaker data or clearer Fed easing signals, USD/JPY could reprice toward the high-140s. Any sustained BoJ normalization would amplify that move, though the pace of BoJ policy normalization remains deliberately gradual.

USD/CHF

Macro Drivers: USD/CHF is trading in the 0.89–0.91 region, having strengthened alongside the broader dollar. The SNB has historically used CHF strength as an inflation buffer but has more recently signaled greater balance, with some scope for easing if inflation continues to decline. The US-Swiss rate differential supports USD/CHF on rallies, though CHF retains its safe-haven character and attracts flows when risk sentiment deteriorates sharply.

Technical Detail: Support is at 0.8900–0.8920, with a deeper level at 0.8800. Resistance is layered at 0.9100–0.9150. Recent price action reflects a moderate USD tailwind without a decisive trend extension.

Trend: The baseline is sideways-to-slightly higher USD/CHF while US yields remain elevated and risk sentiment is broadly stable. Downside risks include renewed global risk aversion, geopolitical shocks, or any surprise SNB tightening signal; these factors could push CHF sharply higher and reverse recent gains.

AUD/USD

Macro Drivers: AUD/USD is trading around the 0.64–0.65 area, having bounced from recent lows but still capped by firm US yields and mixed commodity sentiment. The RBA is maintaining a restrictive rate setting and pushing back against imminent cut expectations, citing sticky services inflation and a robust labor market. The key external driver remains China — industrial production, credit data, and housing activity — alongside iron ore and broader commodity price trends.

Technical Detail: Support is at 0.6450–0.6470, then 0.6400 on a deeper pullback. Resistance is at 0.6550–0.6600, with 0.6700 opening only on a sustained risk-on and China-positive backdrop. Price action has been choppy, with rallies consistently capped by firm US yields.

Trend: Near-term direction is primarily a function of global risk appetite and incoming China headlines. AUD tends to underperform when US growth outshines global peers and commodities soften. The medium-term range is broadly 0.64–0.68; a grind higher requires China stabilization combined with a Fed pivot while the RBA stays cautious.

USD/CAD

Macro Drivers: USD/CAD trades around 1.36–1.37, having moved higher as oil's rally stalled and the BoC pivoted toward a more dovish stance ahead of the Fed. The BoC has been among the first G10 central banks to open the door to rate cuts as Canadian growth slowed and core inflation eased. The US-Canada rate differential and relative growth outlook now clearly favor the dollar, particularly when crude oil ranges or softens.

Technical Detail: Support is at 1.3500–1.3520. Resistance sits at 1.3700–1.3750, with a break above opening 1.3800 and beyond. The pair has moved persistently higher on BoC-Fed divergence without a significant corrective pullback.

Trend: The bias is mildly bullish USD/CAD, supported by the divergence in policy paths and any softness in crude. Downside risk materializes if oil prices rally meaningfully or the BoC adopts a more hawkish tone on re-accelerating inflation. The path of least resistance remains higher while the fundamental drivers stay intact.

NZD/USD

Macro Drivers: NZD/USD is trading around the 0.60 handle, in the upper-0.59s to low-0.60s range. The RBNZ maintains a hawkish bias relative to several G10 peers, with policy still restrictive and ongoing concern about inflation persistence. The kiwi is highly sensitive to global risk sentiment, dairy prices, and China-related news flows, and generally operates as a higher-beta version of the AUD/USD dynamic.

Technical Detail: Support is at 0.5950–0.5980, with deeper support at 0.5900. Resistance is found at 0.6050–0.6100, then 0.6200 on any broader risk-on rally. Price has been volatile with swings driven more by global sentiment than domestic catalysts.

Trend: The base case is a range trade with an upside skew if global risk stabilizes and the RBNZ remains among the more hawkish G10 central banks. A sharp risk-off episode or a dovish RBNZ pivot would push NZD/USD back below 0.60 and toward the 0.5900 support. The overall posture is cautiously constructive but conditional on the external environment.