Morning Briefing — Wednesday, October 28, 2026
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its cash rate at 2.75% overnight against a calendar forecast of a hike to 3.00%, and NZD/USD fell 1.34% in the ten minutes after the 01:00 UK decision, 41 times a normal move for that hour, ahead of a day that also brings the Bank of Canada, a UK Budget and the Fed.
Markets
| Instrument | Last | Change | 20-day range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Currencies | |||
| EUR/USD | 1.11231.1122 –1.1177 | -0.01% | 4% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33041.3303 –1.3349 | -0.01% | 59% |
| USD/JPY | 157.95157.42 –157.98 | +0.01% | 65% |
| USD/CHF | 0.82970.8258 –0.8294 | +0.09% | 52% |
| AUD/USD | 0.70340.7009 –0.7040 | +0.14% | 96% |
| NZD/USD | 0.56150.5674 –0.5707 | -1.16% | 34% |
| USD/CAD | 1.40631.4008 –1.4054 | +0.09% | 29% |
| USD/CNH | 6.66606.6636 –6.6706 | +0.02% | 4% |
| Dollar index | 102.20 | 0.00% | — |
| Precious metals | |||
| Gold | 4,042.613,988.99 –4,065.51 | -0.43% | 27% |
| Silver | 54.0052.65 –54.53 | -0.74% | 14% |
| Crypto | |||
| Bitcoin | 80,91979,506 –80,836 | +1.68% | 21% |
| Ether | 2,355.002,297.44 –2,358.38 | +2.08% | 15% |
Change since the previous close; crypto over 24 hours. Under each price: yesterday's low and high to the New York close. The 20-day gauge places the latest price between its 20-day low (left) and high (right). Indicative prices, 04:36 UK. Breadth: 2 of 12 instruments moved more than twice their typical day (EUR/USD 2.6x, USD/CHF 2.0x). 1 of 5 release times still had their pair at least 3x a normal move ten minutes on (releases in one currency at the same minute count once).
Rates and risk
| Instrument | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Government bonds | ||
| US 2-year | 4.700% | +2 bp |
| US 10-year | 4.990% | -1 bp |
| German 10-year | 3.390% | -1 bp |
| UK 10-year | 5.350% | n/a |
| Equities, oil and VIX | ||
| S&P 500 | 7,724 | +0.03% |
| Nikkei 225 | 64,136 | n/a |
| Brent | 110.83 | -2.69% |
| VIX | 18.92 | +0.26% |
Yields in percent, with the day's change in basis points, each the publisher's latest daily figure. Index, oil and VIX rows are tradable instruments, so outside exchange hours they show the futures-implied level; change since that market's previous close.
Overview
Tuesday was a fragmented session: on the Currency Compass, one common dollar move explained 43% of the day's price action, against a six-month norm of 53% (Figure 2). The euro did most of the work, ending at its lowest New York close since at least June 11 after the ECB's bank lending survey, while gold climbed back from below $4,000. Overnight, Australian inflation came in hot and the RBNZ surprised in the other direction. Today's main event is the FOMC decision at 18:00 UK, where a hold at 3.75%–4.00% is widely expected according to media reports, so the guidance on December carries the weight.
