Week Ahead — October 4, 2026

Week Ahead — October 4, 2026

Spot foreign exchange and precious metals reopen Sunday evening after the weekend close, while crypto has traded continuously throughout. The single biggest event of the coming week is Wednesday's release of the Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting minutes, which arrive as markets have sharply repriced the probability of near-term Fed tightening. That repricing is already rippling through Treasury yields, the dollar, and risk assets — meaning the minutes carry outsized potential to either validate or reverse the moves made in the prior week. Layered on top are Monday's U.S. ISM Services PMI, Thursday's ECB monetary-policy account, and Friday's Canadian employment report, giving traders a full slate of macro catalysts from Monday through Friday.

Crypto enters the week with Bitcoin near $85,250 and Ethereum near $2,702, against a total market cap of roughly $2.90 trillion and BTC dominance at approximately 58.9%. Weekend price action was calm, with both BTC and ETH up around 0.57% on October 4. On the crypto-specific side, Monday's Ethena ENA unlock is the most immediately visible supply event, and the Ethereum Glamsterdam upgrade targeting the Sepolia testnet on Tuesday is a protocol milestone worth tracking.

The Week at a Glance

Monday

00:00 GMT — Australia — TD-MI Inflation Gauge, September (prior: +0.50%)Early read on Australian inflation; can move AUD.

00:30 GMT — Japan — Services PMI, final, September (prior: 51.6)Confirms or revises Japan's services-sector health.

05:00 GMT — Japan — Leading Economic Index, preliminary, August (consensus: 118.1; prior: 117.7)Forward-looking Japan activity indicator; watched for USD/JPY.

07:50 GMT — France — Services PMI, final, September (consensus: 51.4)Euro-area growth picture; feeds EUR/USD.

07:55 GMT — Germany — Services PMI, final, September (consensus: 52.9)Germany is the euro area's largest economy; a miss moves EUR.

10:00 ET — United States — ISM Services PMI, September (consensus: ~55.1–55.3; prior: 55.4)Broadest read on U.S. services activity and price pressures; key dollar and rate-expectations driver.

During day — United States — Fed official remarks including Austan GoolsbeeAny policy signals recalibrate rate-path expectations.

October 5 — Crypto — Ethena (ENA) — 1.41 billion ENA distribution / final investor unlockPotential supply overhang; watch for selling pressure.

October 5 — Crypto — Starknet — v0.14.4 mainnet upgradeNetwork upgrade; event-driven volatility risk for STRK.

October 5 — Crypto — Nillion (NIL) — Blacklight L1 mainnet launchToken launch catalyst; watch for volatility in NIL.

October 5 — Russia — Bank of Russia crypto-exchange admission rules take effectRegulatory milestone; context for Russian crypto market access.

Tuesday

Time not confirmed — Euro area — Retail Sales, AugustGauge of consumer demand; can shift EUR rate expectations.

13:00 ET — United States — 3-year Treasury note auctionDemand and yield outcome signals appetite for U.S. debt; affects dollar and gold.

~13:53 UTC (target) — Crypto — Ethereum — Glamsterdam upgrade activates on Sepolia testnetTestnet milestone ahead of eventual mainnet deployment; developer-community signal for ETH.

Wednesday

Time not confirmed — United States — Federal Reserve — FOMC minutes, September meetingThe week's marquee event; markets scan for the balance between inflation concern and labor-market caution, and for clues on the pace of any future easing.

Time not confirmed — Japan — Bank of Japan — Governor Ueda remarksBoJ policy language is a direct USD/JPY catalyst; yield-curve-control signals especially sensitive.

No other major confirmed data releases were identified for Wednesday.

Thursday

08:30 ET — United States — Initial jobless claims, week ending October 3Weekly labor-market pulse; feeds rate-path expectations and risk sentiment.

Time not confirmed — European Central Bank — Monetary-policy account (meeting minutes)ECB's own account of its last rate decision; may clarify the path on cuts or hikes for EUR traders.

~21:25 UTC (earliest activation) — Crypto — XRP Ledger — PermissionDelegationV1_1 amendment activation windowProtocol governance milestone; contingent on validator support.

Friday

23:30 GMT — Japan — Overall Household Spending, YoY, August (consensus: −3.50%; prior: −3.60%)Consumer health in Japan; influences BoJ outlook and USD/JPY.

08:30 ET — Canada — Net Change in Employment, September (consensus: +9.5k; prior: −41.7k)Biggest scheduled USD/CAD catalyst of the week.

08:30 ET — Canada — Unemployment Rate, September (consensus: 6.50%; prior: 6.40%)Paired with net employment; shapes Bank of Canada rate expectations.

10:00 ET — United States — University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, preliminary October (consensus: 48.1; prior: 48.1)Headline sentiment and, crucially, inflation expectations; a surprise in either direction moves rate markets.

Time not confirmed — China — CPI, SeptemberChina demand signal; matters for commodity currencies (AUD, NZD) and metals.

~14:12–14:46 UTC (earliest activation) — Crypto — XRP Ledger — fixBatchV1_2 and Batch amendment activation windowsFurther XRP Ledger protocol updates; validator-dependent.

Foreign Exchange — What to Watch

The Dollar and ISM Services

The ISM Services PMI on Monday at 10:00 ET is the first significant test for the dollar this week, with consensus centered around 55.1–55.3 versus a prior reading of 55.4. Because U.S. services activity has been the main pillar supporting the resilient-growth narrative, a meaningful beat — particularly if the prices-paid component accelerates — would reinforce higher-for-longer rate expectations and give the dollar a firming bias heading into the midweek Fed minutes. A miss, conversely, would invite fresh dollar selling and could support currencies that have been pressed lower by dollar strength.

FOMC Minutes — The Week's Defining Event

Wednesday's release of the September FOMC minutes is the central macro event for every major dollar pair. Traders will parse the discussion for how committee members weighed inflation persistence against signs of labor-market softening, and for any debate about the pace of future adjustments. A notably hawkish tone — heavy emphasis on sticky inflation, reluctance to ease — would likely extend the dollar's recent firmness and keep upward pressure on yields. A more balanced or cautious tone would be a catalyst for dollar weakness across the board. EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD are all sensitive to this release through the U.S. yield channel.

EUR/USD and the ECB Account

The euro faces a two-sided event risk this week. On Thursday, the ECB monetary-policy account will be scrutinized for how much appetite exists among officials for further policy adjustment, at a time when euro-area growth data have been mixed. Earlier in the week, the German and French Services PMI finals on Monday (consensus 52.9 and 51.4 respectively) and Tuesday's euro-area retail sales will set the tone for how robust underlying demand looks. A hawkish ECB account paired with steady euro-area data would support EUR/USD; a dovish read alongside soft retail sales would put renewed pressure on the pair, especially if the dollar simultaneously benefits from strong ISM and hawkish Fed minutes.

USD/JPY — Dual Central-Bank Risk

USD/JPY is pulled in two directions this week: Governor Ueda's remarks on Wednesday are a live BoJ communication event, and any language suggesting the Bank of Japan is moving closer to further policy normalization would weigh on USD/JPY through narrowing rate differentials. At the same time, the Fed minutes could either widen or narrow that differential from the U.S. side. Japan's Leading Economic Index on Monday (consensus 118.1, prior 117.7) and the final Services PMI are secondary reads on domestic momentum. Friday's household-spending data (consensus −3.50% YoY) will test whether Japanese consumers are contributing enough to domestic demand to justify a BoJ policy shift.

USD/CAD — Friday's Employment Report Is the Key

The Canadian labor market report on Friday is the clearest single-country catalyst of the week for a specific pair. The consensus calls for a rebound to +9.5k jobs after a sharp −41.7k loss in the prior period, with the unemployment rate expected to tick up to 6.50% from 6.40%. If employment beats materially and the unemployment rate holds or falls, the Canadian dollar would typically find support and USD/CAD would come under pressure. A miss, especially if unemployment rises further than forecast, would reinforce dovish Bank of Canada expectations and support USD/CAD. Oil prices remain a parallel driver that can amplify or offset the employment signal for this pair.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD — Risk-Sentiment Proxies

Neither Australia nor New Zealand has a major central-bank decision or top-tier domestic data release this week beyond Monday's Australian TD-MI Inflation Gauge. Both pairs will therefore trade primarily as expressions of broader risk appetite, U.S. dollar direction, and China growth expectations. Friday's China CPI, though lacking a confirmed consensus in available data, is worth monitoring as a read on domestic demand in Australia's largest trading partner. A risk-off shift driven by hawkish Fed minutes or weak U.S. data surprises would likely weigh on both antipodean currencies regardless of domestic developments.