Europe Session — Market Briefing – September 24, 2026

Europe Session — 06:00 UTC

Asia recap: Overnight trade was relatively subdued across the major Asia-Pacific centers, with Japanese markets watching yen volatility closely as USD/JPY held in the mid-150s and Tokyo CPI data reinforced the view that BoJ normalization remains gradual but directional. Chinese session flows were cautious, with AUD and NZD range-bound amid mixed commodity signals and no fresh stimulus headlines out of Beijing. Regional equity markets traded with a modest risk-on tilt following the prior session's momentum in crypto and precious metals, though volumes were light ahead of the European open.

Europe preview: The London open inherits a market environment shaped by dollar firmness, precious metals consolidating near multi-year highs, and crypto digesting one of the strongest weekly BTC rallies in years. European traders will be watching for ECB and BoE speaker commentary — any shift in tone on the pace of easing will be the primary catalyst for EUR and GBP moves today. Euro-area PMI and UK labor market dynamics remain the fundamental backdrop; the data pulse has been soft enough to keep EUR/USD pinned near two-month lows and GBP/USD range-bound. Oil and broader commodity sentiment feed through to CAD and NOK positioning, with geopolitical risk premia in precious metals staying elevated.

1. Foreign Exchange

US Dollar / DXY

The dollar index holds firm in the upper-104 to 105 area, close to multi-week highs. The USD bull case rests on a resilient US labor market, sticky core services inflation, and Fed rhetoric emphasizing data dependence and the risk of cutting too soon. Support sits at 103.50–104.00; resistance is layered at 105.50–106.00, with a clean break above that re-opening the 107+ region seen during prior risk-off phases. Until incoming US data — particularly CPI and retail sales — show a clear deceleration, the baseline is a moderately strong dollar.

EUR/USD

Macro Drivers: EUR/USD is trading near its weakest levels in approximately two months, with the pair grinding lower as US activity data has outperformed and markets have trimmed ECB easing expectations. The ECB's deposit rate is on hold with guidance remaining data-dependent; persistent core inflation pressures are keeping the Bank from committing to an accelerated cut path. The Fed has kept the funds target at 3.50–3.75% and is maintaining a higher-for-longer posture, keeping the rate differential and relative growth story firmly in the dollar's favor. Euro-area PMIs and industrial production have been soft, reinforcing the divergence narrative.

Technical Detail: Spot is trading around 1.154–1.155, with immediate support at the 1.1500–1.1525 zone — a combination of a psychological handle and recent short-term lows. Below there, 1.1460–1.1475 represents the next swing-low support where sellers previously covered. Resistance is layered at 1.1600–1.1630, then more substantially at 1.1700 where key moving averages converge. Price action is characterized as mildly bearish to sideways, with the pair failing to reclaim any meaningful recovery above the 1.16 handle.

Trend: The directional bias is sell-on-rally while EUR/USD trades below approximately 1.17, with dips toward 1.15–1.1460 likely attracting real-money support. Near-term catalysts to watch are ECB Governing Council speeches and any flash or final euro-area PMI revisions. A sustained break below 1.1460 would open a more meaningful leg lower; conversely, a string of soft US data prints would be needed to shift the bias back toward EUR recovery.

GBP/USD

Macro Drivers: Cable is trading roughly in the 1.26–1.27 area after GBP underperformed EUR modestly over the past week as UK data softened and markets trimmed BoE tightening expectations. Recent BoE minutes showed a split MPC, with the committee gradually shifting toward eventual easing as headline inflation falls, but sticky wages and services inflation are keeping any cuts cautious and gradual. The UK-US rate spread has narrowed, limiting GBP upside, and broad USD firmness remains the dominant intraday driver. The UK growth backdrop is fragile and fiscal space is constrained, keeping GBP fair-to-slightly-rich against most fundamental models.

Technical Detail: Immediate support sits at 1.2600–1.2620, a region of recent lows and a key psychological level; deeper support is at 1.2520–1.2550. Resistance is concentrated in the 1.2750–1.2800 band, with 1.2850–1.2900 achievable only on a broad risk-on move paired with a softer USD. Recent price action has been choppy without a decisive directional break, consistent with a market awaiting a clearer fundamental trigger.

Trend: The baseline is range trade between 1.25 and 1.29, with directional momentum closely following global risk sentiment and US data. Downside risks center on UK growth disappointments and any dovish surprise from BoE speakers scheduled this week; upside requires a combination of a stronger global risk rally and accelerating US disinflation. MPC members appearing at conferences and parliamentary hearings represent the key scheduled catalyst for GBP today.

USD/JPY

Macro Drivers: USD/JPY remains elevated in the mid-150s, close to cycle highs, after repeated tests of levels that previously triggered official Japanese FX operations. Policy divergence — with the Fed holding at restrictive levels and the BoJ having exited negative rates but still running an accommodative balance sheet with capped yields relative to global peers — is the primary structural driver of yen weakness. Japanese authorities have explicitly signaled discomfort with rapid FX moves and have intervened when moves were deemed disorderly, creating a two-way risk profile at these levels. BoJ communications and JGB purchase operations this week will be monitored for any signals on the pace of further normalization.

Technical Detail: Support is in the low-150s, corresponding to the prior intervention zone; a break below that area would open 148–149. Resistance is near the upper-150s, a region where the market prices in a high probability of renewed and heavier intervention. Intraday spikes and reversals consistent with official operations have characterized recent price action, meaning fills and stop placement around key levels carry elevated risk.

Trend: The near-term profile is two-way — structural upward pressure from rate differentials versus repeated risk of sharp downside spikes from intervention. If US yields drift lower on softer data or clearer Fed easing signals, USD/JPY could reprice toward the high 140s; sustained BoJ normalization would amplify that move but is expected to remain gradual. For European session purposes, any BoJ speaker commentary on yen levels or yield operations is the primary headline risk.

USD/CHF

Macro Drivers: USD/CHF trades broadly in the 0.89–0.91 region, having strengthened alongside the broader USD while CHF remains relatively firm against EUR. The SNB has historically tolerated a strong franc as an inflation buffer but has more recently signaled a more balanced stance, with some scope for easing if domestic inflation continues to track lower. The US-Swiss rate differential supports USD/CHF on rallies, but CHF retains its safe-haven character and benefits from flight-to-quality flows when geopolitical or systemic risk spikes. SNB policy is considerably less aggressive than the Fed's, reinforcing the structural USD bid on the pair.

Technical Detail: Support is at 0.8900–0.8920, with a break below opening 0.8800. Resistance is at 0.9100–0.9150. Recent price action reflects a choppy but dollar-favorable trend consistent with the broader DXY move, without a clean technical breakout in either direction.

Trend: The baseline is sideways-to-slightly higher USD/CHF while US yields remain elevated and risk sentiment stays stable. Downside risks include renewed global risk aversion, geopolitical shocks, or any surprise SNB hawkish shift. With no SNB meeting imminent, the pair is likely to trade as a function of DXY momentum and risk-off/risk-on dynamics rather than domestic Swiss catalysts.

AUD/USD

Macro Drivers: AUD/USD is trading around 0.65, oscillating between the mid-0.64s and low-0.65s, with rallies capped by firm US yields and mixed commodity sentiment. The RBA has kept its policy rate restrictive and has pushed back against expectations of imminent cuts, citing sticky services inflation and a robust labor market — providing AUD with some policy support relative to peers. However, the pair remains highly sensitive to China data, particularly industrial production, credit, and housing, all of which have been mixed. Iron ore and broader commodity price signals remain the key commodity-side driver.

Technical Detail: Support is at 0.6450–0.6470, with deeper support at 0.6400. Resistance is at 0.6550–0.6600, with 0.6700 requiring a sustained risk-on move and positive China newsflow to achieve. The pair has been trading choppily within a broad 0.64–0.68 range, with no decisive directional break.

Trend: Near-term direction is primarily a function of global risk appetite and China headline flow. If China data stabilizes and the Fed moves toward easing while the RBA holds, AUD/USD can grind higher; absent that combination, the pair is likely to remain capped. The broader 0.64–0.68 range is the working assumption for the medium term.

USD/CAD

Macro Drivers: USD/CAD trades around 1.36–1.37, having moved higher as oil's rally stalled and the BoC pivoted earlier than the Fed toward a more dovish stance as Canadian growth slowed and core inflation eased. The US-Canada rate spread and relative growth outlook now clearly favor the USD, particularly in periods when crude oil softens or ranges without a directional catalyst. Any OPEC+ commentary or energy-sector headlines this week carry direct implications for CAD. The BoC's willingness to ease ahead of the Fed is the central macro driver of this pair's upward drift.

Technical Detail: Support is at 1.3500–1.3520. Resistance is at 1.3700–1.3750, with a clean break above that opening 1.3800 and beyond. The pair has moved higher in a controlled manner consistent with the diverging policy narrative rather than a risk-event-driven spike.

Trend: The bias is mildly bullish USD/CAD, sustained by policy divergence and any softness in crude. The primary downside risk is a meaningful oil price rally and/or a more hawkish BoC shift if Canadian inflation re-accelerates. For today's European session, oil price direction is the key intraday variable for this pair.

NZD/USD

Macro Drivers: NZD/USD is trading around the 0.60 handle, oscillating in the upper-0.59s to low-0.60s, with the kiwi exhibiting higher beta volatility relative to AUD driven by global risk swings and shifting RBNZ guidance. The RBNZ maintains a hawkish bias relative to several G10 peers, with policy still in restrictive territory and ongoing concern about inflation persistence — this provides a degree of policy support for NZD. The pair is also sensitive to dairy prices, China sentiment, and broader commodity cycles. Global risk appetite is the dominant short-term driver.

Technical Detail: Support is at 0.5950–0.5980, with deeper support around 0.5900. Resistance sits at 0.6050–0.6100, with 0.6200 achievable on a broader risk-on rally. The pair is range-trading with no clear breakout, consistent with the broader sideways USD environment and neutral commodity signals.

Trend: The baseline is range trade with a modest upside skew if global risk stabilizes and the RBNZ maintains its relative hawkishness among G10 central banks. Downside risk is concentrated in sharp risk-off episodes or any dovish RBNZ pivot, either of which would push NZD/USD back below 0.60. NZD remains the highest-beta major in the current environment and is the most vulnerable to sentiment swings during the European session.