Asia Session — Market Briefing – September 25, 2026

Asia Session — 23:00 UTC

The US session closed with the dollar firmly on top. DXY pushed through 101, settling near 101.29 — up roughly 0.20% on the day and 2.79% year-to-date — as strong US PMI data, rising Treasury yields, and firmer oil prices combined to push risk sentiment defensively. The 10-year yield is trading at levels that are materially pressuring rate-sensitive assets across FX, metals, and crypto alike. Fed officials' commentary has reinforced the narrative that policy will stay restrictive, and the market is reassessing the pace of any future easing cycle. Equity sentiment closed softer, leaving AUD, NZD, and emerging-market currencies on the back foot heading into Asia.

Asia Pacific opens with the US-China summit on the radar. The scheduled Trump–Xi meeting is the single most important non-data event for this session, with direct read-through to AUD, NZD, CNH, regional equities, and commodities. Any constructive outcome would likely spark a sharp recovery in the antipodean pairs and lift risk appetite broadly; a breakdown or absence of meaningful progress would reinforce dollar and yen safe-haven demand. China-linked positioning is therefore the dominant discretionary risk for Asia hours today. Watch CNH fixings closely — the PBOC's reference rate will set the tone for regional risk appetite at the open.

Regional data risk is modest but present. Canadian retail sales for July are scheduled for September 24 and may land during late Asia or early Europe overlap. The broader week-ahead calendar builds toward Wednesday, September 30 — a data-dense day featuring Australian CPI, China PMI, US PCE, US ADP employment, and the final Q2 US GDP print. Precious metals enter the Asia session in a defensive posture; gold is holding just above the $4,250–$4,260 support zone after breaching $4,300 in the US session. Crypto markets are cautiously constructive on a seven-day basis but remain sensitive to the CLARITY Act regulatory backdrop.

1. Foreign Exchange

Dollar conditions: DXY is at approximately 101.29, supported by strong US PMI data, elevated Treasury yields, firmer oil, and defensive positioning. The index broke above 101 in the prior session in a move exceeding 0.5%. Initial support sits at 101.00, then 100.50; resistance is 101.50 and 102.00. The near-term structure is bullish while above 101, though the rally is potentially stretched relative to fundamentals, leaving room for consolidation if incoming data disappoint or risk appetite stabilizes.

USD/JPY

Macro Drivers: The pair is trading around 158–159, driven almost entirely by the US–Japan yield differential as the 10-year Treasury pushes to multi-year highs while the Bank of Japan maintains a gradual and cautious normalization pace. EUR/JPY near 180.57 is consistent with broad yen weakness across the board. Intervention risk is the key asymmetric factor: Japanese authorities have historically acted near or above 160, and verbal warnings tend to increase sharply as the pair approaches that psychological level. The BOJ's policy path remains far behind the Fed, and that gap is not expected to close materially within this week's data window.

Technical Detail: Immediate resistance is at the psychologically and politically critical 160.00 handle. Support is at 158.00, then 156.50–157.00. The pair has been grinding higher in a trend defined by the yield differential, and price action is coherent with a retest of 160 in the near term. A daily close below 158.00 would be the first signal that near-term upside pressure is fading.

Trend: Bullish but increasingly intervention-sensitive. Risk/reward for fresh long positions deteriorates meaningfully above 159.50, where the probability of unilateral Japanese intervention rises sharply. A confirmed break and close above 160 would likely be short-lived if authorities respond; a pullback to 158 on intervention would not alter the underlying yield-differential-driven uptrend unless BOJ policy shifts materially.

AUD/USD

Macro Drivers: AUD is under dual pressure from a broadly stronger dollar and deteriorating risk sentiment following the US session close. The pair is highly sensitive to China-related developments, and the Trump–Xi summit is the dominant near-term binary for Asia hours — a constructive outcome is a sharp AUD positive, while a breakdown reinforces downside toward 0.6500. RBA policy expectations remain in the background, but commodity prices and Chinese activity signals are the dominant daily drivers.

Technical Detail: Resistance is at 0.6600, then 0.6650–0.6700. Support sits at 0.6550, with the next significant level at 0.6500. The pair has been under pressure as US dollar strength and weaker risk sentiment pulled it away from the 0.6600 area in the prior session. A sustained hold below 0.6600 keeps the bearish structure intact.

Trend: Bearish below 0.6600 in the absence of a catalyst. A positive US–China summit outcome could trigger a sharp, potentially 50–80 pip recovery through 0.6600 toward 0.6650; disappointing negotiations combined with continued dollar strength expose the 0.6500 area. Position sizing around the summit is the primary trading consideration for Asia hours.

NZD/USD

Macro Drivers: NZD is being pressured by the same risk-off and dollar-strength dynamics affecting AUD, compounded by the pair's sensitivity to Chinese growth signals and global dairy and commodity conditions. RBNZ policy expectations are secondary to macro risk appetite in the current environment. The NZD tends to lag AUD in a China-driven recovery, making it a lower-beta expression of the same summit risk.

Technical Detail: Resistance is at 0.5900, then 0.5950–0.6000. Support is at 0.5850, with 0.5800 the next meaningful downside zone. The pair is positioned in the lower end of the near-term range, consistent with the broader antipodean weakness seen in the US session.

Trend: Bearish below 0.5900. A broad dollar correction or positive summit headlines offer the clearest path toward 0.5950, but the pair lacks independent catalysts in Asia today. Downside acceleration through 0.5850 would bring 0.5800 into focus.

EUR/USD

Macro Drivers: EUR/USD is near 1.1367–1.1371, pressured by the combination of a strong dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and the ECB's comparatively less hawkish policy posture. The euro lacks a yield advantage versus the dollar at current levels, making the pair highly reactive to US data surprises and Treasury moves. No ECB policy decision falls within this week's window, so the fundamental driver remains the Fed-ECB policy divergence narrative.

Technical Detail: Immediate resistance is at 1.1400, followed by 1.1450 — the recent breakdown zone. Initial support is at 1.1350, then 1.1300. The pair broke down as the dollar advanced, and the technical structure favors the bear case while price remains below the 1.1400–1.1450 zone. A sustained breach below 1.1350 would expose 1.1300.

Trend: Bearish below 1.1400–1.1450. The current dollar rally may be stretched, leaving room for a technical bounce, but the fundamental backdrop does not support a durable euro recovery until either the ECB surprises hawkishly or US data materially disappoints. Recovery above 1.1450 would be needed to weaken the bearish thesis.

GBP/USD

Macro Drivers: Sterling is among the weaker performers in the dollar advance, reflecting the combination of US yield strength and ongoing concerns about UK growth and fiscal conditions. The medium-term bias favors modest GBP weakness, with a prior institutional forecast of 1.31 for September on file. UK-specific catalysts are limited in today's Asia session, leaving sterling as a passive recipient of dollar and global risk dynamics.

Technical Detail: Resistance is concentrated near 1.3500, then 1.3600. Support is at 1.3400, then 1.3300. Sterling has been unable to hold above 1.3500 in recent sessions, and the technical structure reflects a pair under sustained selling pressure from dollar strength. A clean break below 1.3400 would confirm renewed downside momentum.

Trend: Bearish to neutral while below 1.3500. Stronger UK data or a meaningful softening of the dollar would be required to stage a recovery toward 1.3500–1.3600; absent those catalysts, the path of least resistance points toward 1.3400 and below.

USD/CHF

Macro Drivers: The dollar's broad advance implies upward pressure on USD/CHF, though the Swiss franc retains its safe-haven characteristics and can attract flows during periods of elevated risk aversion that partially offset dollar strength. The Swiss National Bank's tolerance for franc strength introduces policy optionality that limits the pair's upside compared with USD/JPY. US yields and global risk sentiment remain the primary daily drivers.

Technical Detail: Resistance is around 0.8100, then 0.8200. Support is near 0.8000 and 0.7950. The pair is being supported by the broader dollar bid but faces a more contested upside path given CHF's dual role as both a funding currency and a safe-haven asset.

Trend: Moderately bullish while above 0.8000. Safe-haven franc demand can periodically offset dollar strength, making the trend less clean than USD/JPY. A decisive move through 0.8100 would strengthen the bullish case; a break below 0.8000 would suggest that risk aversion is benefiting the franc over the dollar.

USD/CAD

Macro Drivers: The pair is caught between competing forces: the stronger dollar provides upside, while firmer oil prices — which are CAD-positive — offer partial offset. Canadian retail sales for July are scheduled for release on September 24 and represent the near-term data catalyst for the pair. The broader US dollar move and relative monetary policy expectations remain the dominant drivers over any individual data point.

Technical Detail: Resistance is at 1.3900, then 1.4000. Support is at 1.3800, then 1.3700. The pair is in a neutral-to-bullish technical position, with the 1.3900 level acting as the key near-term breakout zone. Oil's rebound is limiting the pace of CAD weakness but not reversing the underlying dollar bid.

Trend: Neutral to moderately bullish. A break and hold above 1.3900 would strengthen the upside case and bring 1.4000 into view. Sustained oil strength alongside firm Canadian retail sales data could keep the pair below 1.3900 and extend the consolidation.