Asia Session — Market Briefing – August 25, 2026

Asia Session — 23:00 UTC

The US/Americas session closed with a broadly constructive tone. DXY settled near 98.8, down roughly 0.2% on the day, as firm global PMI readings boosted risk appetite and lifted most non-USD G10 pairs. AUD was the standout performer, gaining approximately 0.8% on the session. EUR/USD closed around 1.1679 and GBP/USD near 1.3644, both edging higher on the dollar's retreat. USD/JPY eased fractionally to near 158.95, still uncomfortably close to the 160 line that has drawn official scrutiny. Precious metals finished firm, with gold near 4,650–4,660 and silver just below the 70 handle after testing it intraday. Crypto surged, with Bitcoin printing near 79,000 in what has been described as the strongest three-day rally since 2023, driven in part by a short squeeze linked to Treasury buyback activity.

Asia-Pacific traders now open into a moderately risk-on backdrop with few hard domestic catalysts on the early docket. Singapore CPI for July is already in the market at 2.2% YoY and 2.0% core — benign enough to keep regional central bank expectations stable. The session's primary task is price discovery around the moves handed off from New York: whether AUD can sustain a push toward 0.72, whether USD/JPY holds below 160, and whether gold can consolidate above the 4,600–4,650 pivot. China-related flow, commodity pricing, and any BoJ-adjacent commentary will be the key intraday variables. Thin early-Asia liquidity amplifies the risk of sharp moves in either direction should any headline surprise emerge.

1. Foreign Exchange

The US dollar is consolidating in a mildly offered posture, with DXY hovering in the 98.9–99.0 area after closing last session near 98.8. The 100.00 handle represents a key psychological and technical resistance zone above current levels, and the intermediate-term narrative favors further dollar softness as US growth tracks around 1.5–2.0% and the global macro backdrop gradually normalizes. Any upside US data surprises reinforce yields and support DXY near term, but the medium-term path tilts lower as the "most paths lead to a weaker dollar" framework holds. This week's US Core PCE print and any Fed speaker remarks are the primary catalysts that could shift this balance.

EUR/USD

Macro Drivers: Broad dollar softness and firm global PMI readings are the primary near-term supports for EUR/USD, lifting the pair to the highest levels since May during recent sessions. Expectations for ECB policy remain a secondary factor, with another potential hike still on the table given still-elevated inflation expectations in the euro area. Elevated European energy prices represent the most credible fundamental headwind. This week's US Core PCE data is the key swing variable — a soft print would reinforce the EUR/USD bid.

Technical Detail: Spot is trading around 1.1668–1.1710, with recent price action consolidating just below the 55- and 100-day SMAs clustered in the 1.1710–1.1766 zone. Immediate support sits at 1.1668–1.1620, with stronger floors at 1.1578 and then 1.1491–1.1469 — a clean break of the latter opens a path toward 1.1455–1.1400. Above current levels, a breakout through the SMA cluster targets 1.1811 as the next meaningful upside objective.

Trend: The near-term bias is mildly bearish below the 55- and 100-day SMAs, with the pair in a defined consolidation range rather than a clean directional break. Strong buying interest is anticipated on dips into the 1.1500–1.1600 zone, which represents the confluence of prior support and medium-term value. Medium-term forecasts point toward 1.17–1.18 into late 2026 and early 2027, consistent with the weaker-USD thesis.

GBP/USD

Macro Drivers: Sterling is supported by relatively elevated UK yields versus G10 peers and some improvement in UK terms of trade compared to the acute energy-shock environment of 2022. The Bank of England is viewed as near the end of its hiking cycle, balancing persistent services inflation against softening growth, and markets are trading a high-for-longer path rather than pricing further aggressive tightening. GBP remains sensitive to UK wage data and CPI surprises, as well as BoE communications around the timing and pace of eventual rate cuts.

Technical Detail: GBP/USD is trading in the mid-1.36s, with the most recent session print near 1.3644 and an open indicative reference at 1.3627. The pair is trading above its earlier-year ranges, though still below the 2024–2025 cycle highs. Support is established at the 1.35 psychological level and then 1.34, while resistance clusters at 1.37–1.38 as the next meaningful upside objective.

Trend: The directional bias is mildly bullish, consistent with the broader weaker-dollar framework and GBP's yield advantage. A sustained move above 1.37 would open the door to 1.38 and strengthen the medium-term bullish case. Downside risks are concentrated around BoE communication missteps or materially weaker-than-expected UK data, either of which would quickly challenge the 1.35 support floor.

USD/JPY

Macro Drivers: The pair is being held near 159 by a still-significant yield differential between restrictive Fed policy and the Bank of Japan's very low policy rates, with BoJ normalization proceeding cautiously and gradually. The 160 level has become a well-recognized focal point for potential renewed US-Japan official intervention, acting as an informal ceiling on yen weakness. Any BoJ commentary this session hinting at tolerance for further yen depreciation or, conversely, concern about FX levels, will be closely monitored. Moves in US 10-year yields remain the most reliable real-time guide to the pair's direction.

Technical Detail: USD/JPY is trading near 158.95, just below the psychologically and technically critical 160 resistance level. Support is established in the 157–158 zone, and a break below 157 would signal a more meaningful pullback. Above 160, the focus shifts to prior intervention-linked highs. The pair has eased fractionally from recent highs, consistent with the session's modest dollar softness.

Trend: Near-term bias is range-bound between 157 and 160, with 160 acting as an effective cap given the intervention risk premium embedded in the market. Medium-term forecasts place USD/JPY near 160 in Q3 2026, with a gradual grind lower toward 155–152 over the following year as yen normalization slowly progresses. Any coordinated US-Japan action or a meaningful decline in US 10-year yields could accelerate that move.

USD/CHF

Macro Drivers: The Swiss franc's safe-haven premium has been partially unwound in the current risk-on environment, with USD/CHF drifting modestly lower alongside EUR strength and dollar softness. The Swiss National Bank remains focused on preventing excessive franc appreciation that could hurt exporters, while domestic inflation remains relatively subdued versus G10 peers. With global risk sentiment constructive, the urgency of SNB FX intervention is reduced, but the bank's tolerance levels remain a key watchpoint.

Technical Detail: A precise live spot print is not available, but the directional drift is clearly lower in recent sessions, consistent with DXY sitting near 98.8–99.0. Key support is located in the 0.86–0.88 range, with resistance near parity at 1.00 and prior cycle highs above that. The pair's near-term range is likely anchored by the broader dollar consolidation pattern.

Trend: As long as global risk appetite remains constructive and the dollar stays offered, USD/CHF faces limited upside and a modest downward bias. A deterioration in risk sentiment — driven by hot US inflation data, a hawkish Fed shift, or a geopolitical flare-up — would quickly revive safe-haven CHF demand and press USD/CHF lower. The current setup is one of moderate directionless consolidation within a range.

AUD/USD

Macro Drivers: AUD was the top G10 performer in the prior session, gaining approximately 0.8% as firm global PMIs and a strong risk-on tone drove capital into high-beta, commodity-linked currencies. China's growth outlook and its appetite for Australian iron ore and coal remain the most important structural drivers alongside the global risk tone. The Reserve Bank of Australia is proceeding cautiously, mindful of persistent domestic inflation and housing market dynamics, which limits aggressive dovish repricing. Medium-term forecasts place AUD/USD around 0.72–0.74 in late 2026 and into 2027, consistent with continued dollar weakness.

Technical Detail: AUD/USD is trading near 0.7171, testing and fractionally breaching medium-term ranges that had capped price action earlier in the year. Support is established at 0.7050–0.71, with stronger floors near 0.70. Resistance is located at 0.72–0.73, aligning with the medium-term forecast band and representing the next meaningful technical objective.

Trend: The near-term bias is clearly bullish while global PMIs remain firm and US yields fail to spike materially higher. A sustained break and daily close above 0.72 would confirm momentum and open the path to the 0.73 area. The main risk to the bullish setup is a hot US Core PCE print this week that revives real-yield pressure and pulls AUD/USD back toward the 0.70–0.71 support zone.

USD/CAD

Macro Drivers: CAD faces modest headwinds from trade-war-adjacent headlines, which have kept USD/CAD slightly elevated in recent sessions. The Bank of Canada has broadly tracked the Fed cycle but is viewed as more sensitive to domestic growth and housing dynamics, limiting how long rates can stay at restrictive levels. CAD is heavily influenced by oil prices and broader commodity trends — any sustained improvement in commodity markets, combined with softer US inflation, would support CAD appreciation. Medium-term forecasts place USD/CAD near 1.39 in Q3 2026, with a gradual slide toward 1.35 by end-2027.

Technical Detail: Spot is in the vicinity of the 1.39 forecast area, representing an important resistance and forecast reference level. Support zones cluster around 1.36–1.37 on a pullback. The pair remains in a broadly sideways consolidation, with direction heavily contingent on US data and oil price developments this week.

Trend: The medium-term bias is for gradual USD/CAD decline as the dollar weakens and global growth stabilizes, consistent with a moderate multi-quarter CAD appreciation path. Near-term, trade-related headlines are the most likely source of upside USD/CAD spikes, while a benign US Core PCE print and stable oil prices would reinforce the gradual downward trajectory.

NZD/USD

Macro Drivers: NZD is benefiting from the same broad risk-on, weaker-dollar environment supporting AUD, though NZD/USD flows are smaller and more volatile. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand was among the earlier and more aggressive G10 hikers, and markets are now actively debating the timing of eventual rate cuts. NZD is sensitive to global dairy prices and China demand — two variables that will remain in focus as Asia trade develops this session. The structural outlook is stable to mildly stronger NZD as the global cycle progresses, though with higher volatility than AUD.

Technical Detail: Medium-term forecasts center NZD/USD near 0.60 for late 2026, making that level the key pivot and psychological reference. Support is established at 0.585–0.59, with resistance near 0.62–0.63 representing the upper bound of the expected near-term range.

Trend: The directional bias is mildly bullish alongside the broader weaker-dollar, pro-risk theme, with the 0.60 level acting as both near-term target and medium-term anchor. A break and sustained hold above 0.62 would signal meaningful NZD outperformance and open the path to 0.63. Downside risks center on any deterioration in China demand signals or a hawkish repricing of Fed expectations this week.