Americas Session — Market Briefing – September 28, 2026

Americas Session — 12:00 UTC

Session Introduction

European markets closed with a mixed tone heading into the New York handoff. Eurozone data continued to disappoint at the margin, with PMI readings remaining in contractionary territory for manufacturing and services activity hovering just above the expansion threshold. ECB Governing Council speakers maintained a cautious, data-dependent posture through the session, offering no fresh catalyst for EUR/USD to reclaim ground above the 1.16 handle. The pair drifted toward the lower end of its recent range, and cable similarly underperformed as UK wage data showed incremental cooling — modestly supportive of BoE easing expectations and incrementally negative for sterling.

Precious metals held firm through the London session, with gold consolidating above $4,330 after a constructive overnight bid. Silver maintained its footing near $70–71, and risk appetite in European equities was tentatively positive but lacking conviction. DXY edged higher through the London fix, reflecting relative US growth outperformance and the continued rate-differential story. Oil was range-bound, keeping CAD flows relatively quiet ahead of the New York open.

The Americas session now opens with the focus squarely on US data and Fed speaker rhetoric. With no blockbuster scheduled print today, price action across FX, metals, and crypto will be driven by positioning, intraday flows, and any unscheduled Fed communication. Quarter-end dynamics add an additional layer of complexity — real-money rebalancing flows are active, and month-end/quarter-end fixing demand can generate sharp, short-lived dislocations particularly around the 4pm London fix time that bleeds into early New York trade. Traders should be alert to outsized moves in EUR/USD and USD/JPY that may not reflect fresh fundamental information.

Foreign Exchange

US Dollar & DXY Overview

DXY trades firm in the upper-104 to 105 area, near multi-week highs. The index is underpinned by a US labor market that has consistently outperformed, sticky core services inflation, and a Fed that continues to emphasize data dependence over any commitment to near-term easing. Real yields remain elevated and the broad rate differential still favors the dollar against most G10 peers. The immediate technical picture shows support at 103.50–104.00 and resistance at 105.50–106.00; a clean break above 106 would reopen the 107-plus area last visited during prior risk-off episodes. The baseline remains moderately strong USD while real yields stay elevated, with any meaningful reversal requiring a sequence of weaker US inflation and labor market prints.

EUR/USD

Macro Drivers: EUR/USD is trading near its weakest levels in approximately two months, pressured by US growth outperformance and a persistent rate differential that favors the dollar. The ECB holds its deposit rate steady with guidance remaining explicitly data-dependent, while the Fed maintains its funds target at 3.50–3.75% with a higher-for-longer posture. Eurozone growth indicators — PMIs and industrial production — have been soft, and the euro-area inflation path, while improving, has not moved cleanly enough to force a dovish ECB pivot. The combination of relative growth disappointment and policy divergence keeps the structural headwind for EUR intact.

Technical Detail: Spot trades in the 1.154–1.155 area with immediate support at the 1.1500–1.1525 psychological zone and the next layer at 1.1460–1.1475, a prior swing low where bears previously covered. Resistance is clustered at 1.1600–1.1630, then 1.1700 where key moving averages converge on the daily chart. Price remains under key short-term moving averages, sustaining a mildly bearish structure, though the pair holds above longer-term structural support — keeping an outright collapse scenario off the table without a fresh catalyst.

Trend: The directional bias is sell-on-rally while price trades below approximately 1.17, with any dip to the 1.1500–1.1450 zone likely attracting real-money support and limiting the downside in the near term. Medium-term direction hinges on whether Eurozone data stabilize and whether US disinflation resumes sufficiently to shift Fed expectations. Until that dynamic changes, USD strength remains capped but persistent, keeping EUR/USD in a range-bound to slightly lower posture.

GBP/USD

Macro Drivers: Cable trades in the 1.26–1.27 area as GBP underperforms EUR modestly following incremental softening in UK data and modest trimming of BoE tightening expectations. The BoE holds Bank Rate at a restrictive level with MPC minutes reflecting a split — a gradual shift toward eventual easing as headline inflation falls, but wages and services inflation keeping the pace of cuts cautious. The UK-US rate spread has narrowed, which limits GBP upside against a broadly firm dollar and constrains the pair's ability to sustain any meaningful rally.

Technical Detail: Support is established at 1.2600–1.2620, the recent lows and a key psychological level, with deeper support at 1.2520–1.2550. Resistance lies at 1.2750–1.2800, then 1.2850–1.2900 on any broader risk-on impulse. Recent price action has been choppy with rallies consistently fading into resistance — a pattern consistent with the macro backdrop of limited fundamental support for a sustained GBP re-rating higher.

Trend: The base case is range trade between 1.25 and 1.29, with directional breaks largely following global risk sentiment and US data surprises rather than UK-specific catalysts. Downside risk is concentrated around UK growth disappointments and any dovish BoE surprise; upside depends on a stronger global risk rally and clear evidence of US disinflation driving a softer dollar. Until one of those triggers materializes, GBP remains a pair to fade at the extremes of the range.

USD/JPY

Macro Drivers: USD/JPY trades near elevated levels in the mid-150s, close to cycle highs and within range of levels that have previously triggered official Japanese FX operations. Policy divergence remains the primary structural driver — the Fed holds rates at restrictive levels while the BoJ, having exited negative rates, maintains a substantially looser policy stance with a still-large balance sheet. Japanese authorities have explicitly signaled discomfort with rapid yen depreciation and have intervened when moves are deemed disorderly, creating a two-way risk dynamic that limits the confidence of new short-yen positions.

Technical Detail: Support sits in the low-150s, the prior intervention zone, with a break below opening 148–149. Resistance clusters near the upper-150s recent highs, beyond which market participants anticipate a renewed and potentially heavier official response. Sharp intraday spikes and equally sharp reversals in recent weeks are consistent with official operations leaning against one-way moves, making the technical picture highly asymmetric near the upper end of the range.

Trend: Structural upward pressure from rate differentials pulls USD/JPY higher, but the repeated risk of sharp intervention-driven downside spikes makes directional conviction expensive. If US yields drift lower on softer data or clearer Fed easing signals, USD/JPY could reprice toward the high-140s — and any sustained BoJ normalization would amplify that move. For the Americas session, quarter-end fixing flows add event risk and two-way volatility around the 4pm fix.

USD/CHF

Macro Drivers: USD/CHF trades broadly in the 0.89–0.91 range, having firmed alongside the broader USD while CHF retains relative strength versus the euro. The SNB has historically used CHF strength as an inflation buffer but has signaled a more balanced approach, with scope for easing or at least reduced FX support as Swiss inflation continues to move lower. The US-Swiss rate differential supports USD/CHF on rallies, but CHF maintains its safe-haven premium and benefits from risk-off inflows during geopolitical stress episodes.

Technical Detail: Support is defined at 0.8900–0.8920, with a deeper floor at 0.8800. Resistance sits at 0.9100–0.9150. Price action has been sideways-to-higher in line with the broader USD trend, with no clear breakout on either side establishing a definitive new range.

Trend: The baseline is sideways-to-slightly higher USD/CHF while US yields remain elevated and risk sentiment is broadly stable. Downside risks center on renewed global risk aversion, geopolitical escalation, or any surprise shift in SNB rhetoric toward tightening. Quarter-end risk-off flows, if they materialize, could generate a modest CHF bid that challenges the lower end of the support zone.

AUD/USD

Macro Drivers: AUD/USD trades around the 0.65 handle — mid-0.64s to low-0.65s — having bounced from recent lows but remaining under pressure from global risk swings and ongoing China macro uncertainty. The RBA maintains a restrictive policy rate and has pushed back against expectations of imminent cuts, citing sticky services inflation and a robust domestic labor market. The pair remains highly sensitive to Chinese activity data — industrial production, credit, and housing — and commodity prices, particularly iron ore, which have traded with mixed momentum.

Technical Detail: Support is established at 0.6450–0.6470, with a deeper floor at 0.6400. Resistance lies at 0.6550–0.6600, with 0.6700 requiring a sustained risk-on bid and China-positive news flow to come into play. Recent price action has been choppy, with rallies repeatedly capped as US yields stay firm and commodity sentiment remains mixed — the pair lacks a clean directional catalyst.

Trend: Near-term direction is primarily a function of global risk appetite and China headline flow. AUD tends to underperform when US growth outshines and commodities soften — both conditions broadly in place. Medium-term, if China stabilizes and the Fed shifts toward easing while the RBA stays cautious, AUD/USD can grind toward the upper end of the 0.64–0.68 range; absent that combination, the pair is likely to remain capped.

USD/CAD

Macro Drivers: USD/CAD trades around 1.36–1.37, having moved higher as oil's rally stalled and the BoC pivoted earlier than the Fed toward a more dovish stance. Canada's growth has slowed and core inflation has eased sufficiently for the BoC to open the door to rate cuts, widening the US-Canada rate spread and providing a structural floor for USD/CAD. When oil prices soften or range-trade, that differential amplifies CAD underperformance — the current configuration favors the USD leg.

Technical Detail: Support sits at 1.3500–1.3520. Resistance is at 1.3700–1.3750, with a clean break above that level opening a path toward 1.3800 and beyond. Price has been grinding higher in a well-defined structure, reflecting the divergent policy paths rather than any acute risk-off shock.

Trend: The bias is mildly bullish USD/CAD, underpinned by the policy divergence and any episodes of crude weakness. The primary downside risk is a durable oil rally or a more hawkish BoC surprise if Canadian inflation re-accelerates unexpectedly. Barring those triggers, the path of least resistance remains modestly higher.

NZD/USD

Macro Drivers: NZD/USD trades around the 0.60 handle — upper-0.59s to low-0.60s — with the kiwi among the more volatile G10 pairs given its sensitivity to global risk, dairy prices, and China sentiment. The RBNZ maintains a hawkish bias relative to most peers, with policy remaining restrictive and the central bank expressing continued concern about inflation persistence. That relative hawkishness provides some fundamental support on crosses, but it does not fully offset the structural headwind from a broadly firm USD.

Technical Detail: Support is at 0.5950–0.5980, with deeper support around 0.5900. Resistance sits at 0.6050–0.6100, with 0.6200 requiring a broader risk-on impulse and a China-positive narrative. The pair is higher-beta than AUD/USD and tends to amplify directional moves in both directions.

Trend: The baseline is a range with a modest upside skew if global risk stabilizes and the RBNZ remains among the more hawkish G10 central banks. A dovish RBNZ pivot or a sharp risk-off episode would push NZD/USD decisively back below 0.60. Quarter-end flows introduce near-term binary risk; the pair's thin liquidity profile can amplify fixing-related moves.