Morning Briefing — Thursday, October 29, 2026
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its cash rate at 2.75% when the calendar consensus was a hike to 3%, and the kiwi fell 1.34% against the dollar in ten minutes, 41 times a normal move for that hour.
Markets
| Instrument | Last | Change | 20-day range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Currencies | |||
| EUR/USD | 1.11441.1113 –1.1169 | -0.07% | 14% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33221.3272 –1.3338 | -0.02% | 66% |
| USD/JPY | 157.72157.65 –158.34 | -0.06% | 57% |
| USD/CHF | 0.8279 | +0.01% | — |
| AUD/USD | 0.70510.7022 –0.7064 | -0.03% | 92% |
| NZD/USD | 0.56200.5581 –0.5685 | -0.09% | 38% |
| USD/CAD | 1.39841.3988 –1.4068 | -0.07% | 5% |
| USD/CNH | 6.65906.6606 –6.6675 | -0.04% | Below range |
| Dollar index | 102.01 | +0.04% | — |
| Precious metals | |||
| Gold | 4,037.934,024.26 –4,081.96 | -0.71% | 25% |
| Silver | 53.1553.27 –54.61 | -1.45% | 5% |
| Crypto | |||
| Bitcoin | 80,08380,397 –81,823 | -0.99% | 11% |
| Ether | 2,318.902,323.20 –2,391.55 | -1.46% | 7% |
Change since the previous close; crypto over 24 hours. Under each price: yesterday's low and high to the New York close. The 20-day gauge places the latest price between its 20-day low (left) and high (right). Indicative prices, 04:39 UK. Breadth: 2 of 11 instruments moved more than twice their typical day (NZD/USD 3.6x, USD/CAD 2.1x). 3 of 6 release times still had their pair at least 3x a normal move ten minutes on (releases in one currency at the same minute count once).
Rates and risk
| Instrument | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Government bonds | ||
| US 2-year | 4.670% | -3 bp |
| US 10-year | 5.050% | +6 bp |
| German 10-year | 3.400% | +1 bp |
| UK 10-year | 5.350% | n/a |
| Equities, oil and VIX | ||
| S&P 500 | 7,714 | -0.46% |
| Nikkei 225 | 64,192 | +0.41% |
| Brent | 110.68 | -0.83% |
| VIX | 18.87 | +1.89% |
Yields in percent, with the day's change in basis points, each the publisher's latest daily figure. Index, oil and VIX rows are tradable instruments, so outside exchange hours they show the futures-implied level; change since that market's previous close.
Overview
Wednesday brought three central bank decisions and an inflation surprise: the Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4% with two policymakers voting for a hike, the Bank of Canada raised its rate by a quarter point to 2.5%, and Australian inflation came in above forecast. The kiwi fell 0.98% on the day, 3.6 times its typical move, while the Canadian and Australian dollars each gained about 0.4% against the US dollar. Gold moved with the currency block: on the Currency Compass, its correlation with the six major pairs was 0.59, against a six-month norm of 0.43, the range where gold trades like a currency. Today, US third-quarter GDP and September core PCE inflation land at 12:30 UK, 45 minutes before the ECB decision.
