Asia Session — Market Briefing – August 24, 2026

Asia Session — 23:00 UTC

The US session closed on a broadly soft dollar footing, with DXY retreating as markets continue to reprice the Fed's policy path ahead of a pivotal week. US equities held constructive gains while Treasuries were little changed. The key catalysts this week remain Wednesday's core PCE, Q2 GDP second estimate, and durable goods cluster — all of which will frame the conversation heading into the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Thursday through Saturday. Fed Chair Warsh and ECB's Schnabel are among the scheduled speakers, making this the single most important macro event of the month for rates, FX, and risk assets alike.

The Asia-Pacific session opens with the soft-USD theme intact but with little tier-one domestic data on today's calendar. Participants here will be watching for any early positioning ahead of the week's macro gauntlet, as well as monitoring regional equity opens and cross-asset flows. The RBA Minutes land Tuesday and Australian CPI on Wednesday — both material catalysts for AUD specifically. BoJ's Himino is scheduled to speak Thursday, keeping JPY intervention risk elevated and USD/JPY range-bound for now. Chinese Industrial Profits data are due Thursday and will be watched for read-through to commodity and risk-sensitive currencies.

Across asset classes, the tone is cautiously risk-on. Precious metals continue to trade at historically elevated levels, with gold spot above $4,600. Crypto markets are firmly in greed territory, with BTC consolidating just below the $78,000 resistance band following last week's 22% surge. The institutional crypto buildout — tokenized deposits on distributed ledger infrastructure, expanded staking custody arrangements — continues quietly in the background, lending structural support even as near-term positioning looks stretched.

1. Foreign Exchange

The US dollar remains broadly offered, with the soft-USD theme dominating cross-asset positioning as markets prepare for this week's concentrated macro event risk. DXY has pulled back from late July/early August highs and is trading in the lower half of its recent range. The directional narrative hinges entirely on Wednesday's PCE/GDP data and Fed Chair commentary at Jackson Hole: a benign outcome — in-line to soft data, balanced rhetoric — sustains downside pressure on the dollar; a hawkish surprise or stronger-than-expected PCE would provide a meaningful stabilization bid. Near-term, the desk maintains a soft-USD base case with risk skewed to the event.

USD/JPY

Macro Drivers: USD/JPY remains anchored by wide US–Japan rate differentials and the BoJ's ultra-accommodative stance, both of which structurally favor a higher pair. However, intervention risk has risen materially after joint US-Japanese action in early August pulled the pair sharply off multi-decade highs above 163. Markets are watching BoJ Deputy Governor Himino's speech Thursday for any signals on normalization, and Tokyo CPI and unemployment data Friday will be key inputs for the BoJ's rate path assessment.

Technical Detail: USD/JPY is currently trading around 158–159 in a post-intervention consolidation phase, having recovered from early-August lows after reclaiming the 200-day SMA near 158.06. Immediate resistance sits at the 20-day EMA near 159.60 — the key hurdle to ease the prevailing downside bias. Above that, the pair enters a broader 158.50–160.70 consolidation band; a decisive break above 160.70 reopens 163.60. Downside support is at 158.50, then 155.20–155.30 — the structural two-month anchor.

Trend: Short-term bias is cautiously bearish to sideways, with intervention and positioning risk capping upside even as the structural rate-differential trend remains USD-supportive. Expect range-bound trade around 158–159 into Jackson Hole, with volatility risk elevated if Fed commentary shifts US real-yield expectations materially in either direction. A break below 158.50 opens a more meaningful retracement toward 156.50 and the 155.20 floor.

AUD/USD

Macro Drivers: AUD is outperforming as a pro-cyclical currency in the current soft-USD environment, with the desk favoring long AUD against USD alongside other high-beta peers. The RBA Minutes on Tuesday will be closely parsed for any shift in guidance — hotter domestic inflation expectations would reinforce the case for a further policy pause rather than easing, providing AUD with yield support. Australian CPI on Wednesday is the key domestic catalyst: a firm print keeps RBA rate-cut expectations at bay and supports the pair; a soft print would expose AUD to a sharper pullback. Global risk appetite, particularly sentiment around China, remains a secondary driver.

Technical Detail: AUD/USD has been grinding higher off early-August lows, consistent with the broader USD retreat and positive AUD/JPY trajectory that confirms robust AUD demand. Exact intraday levels are not flagged for a specific print today, but the pair is recovering in line with other pro-cyclical crosses. Near-term, a continuation of the soft-USD environment and a firm CPI print Wednesday would be the constructive scenario. Analysts specifically identify AUD as one of the preferred pairs on the "sell USD" side of the book.

Trend: Near-term bias is constructively bullish for AUD/USD provided Australian CPI does not disappoint and Jackson Hole does not deliver a hawkish shock to US rate expectations. The RBA Minutes Tuesday set the early tone for the pair this week. Risk to the downside centers on a softer-than-expected CPI Wednesday or a USD recovery triggered by strong US PCE.

NZD/USD

Macro Drivers: NZD is moving broadly in sympathy with AUD in the current soft-USD, risk-on environment, with no major New Zealand-specific data on this week's calendar to provide a pair-specific catalyst. The RBNZ's relatively restrictive policy stance — with inflation still above target — keeps NZ yields appealing and provides a carry support for the currency. Chinese growth concerns and global risk sentiment remain the primary secondary drivers for NZD as a high-beta Pacific currency.

Technical Detail: NZD/USD has recovered from early-August lows alongside its Australian counterpart and is biased higher within the prevailing soft-USD trend. No intraday NZD-specific technical levels are flagged in today's data, but the pair is expected to track AUD/USD directionally with some additional beta given its smaller liquidity profile. Key directional input this week will be the USD side of the equation — PCE, GDP, and Jackson Hole.

Trend: Near-term bias is higher alongside AUD/USD if the USD remains under modest pressure and risk sentiment holds stable through the week's event risk. NZD's move will be largely USD-driven in the absence of domestic data, with Jackson Hole and Wednesday's US data cluster as the primary swing factors.

CNH (USD/CNH)

Macro Drivers: China Industrial Profits for July are due Thursday and will be watched for any deterioration in corporate earnings trends that could weigh on CNH and broader Asia risk sentiment. CNH remains sensitive to the broader USD direction alongside domestic PBoC policy management, with the central bank maintaining tight control of the fixing. Any meaningful disappointment in the industrial profits print would add downward pressure on risk-sensitive Asia FX broadly and could be a negative read-through for commodity currencies including AUD.

Technical Detail: No specific USD/CNH intraday levels are flagged in today's research data. The pair continues to be managed within the PBoC's daily fixing framework, limiting the range of spot movement relative to pure floating pairs. The USD softness bias globally is a marginal tailwind for CNH appreciation pressure.

Trend: The path for USD/CNH this week is primarily a function of the global USD direction and the domestic data impulse from Thursday's industrial profits. Soft industrial data would argue for a mildly weaker CNH, while continued USD softness provides an offsetting bid. The desk views USD/CNH as range-constrained by policy management.

EUR/USD

Macro Drivers: EUR/USD is well supported in the mid-1.16s to low-1.17s, driven primarily by broad dollar softness rather than independently strong eurozone fundamentals. The case for at least one additional ECB adjustment remains alive given elevated euro-area inflation expectations, but the pair's direction this week is overwhelmingly determined by the US narrative — specifically Wednesday's PCE/GDP cluster and Jackson Hole. ECB Minutes from the July meeting land Thursday, which will illuminate internal Governing Council dynamics on the pace of any further normalization. Euro-area CPI prints and unemployment data Friday provide a secondary domestic catalyst.

Technical Detail: Price action since early August has been a grinding recovery from the low-1.15s, with buyers sustaining pressure above 1.1520 and targeting the 1.1580–1.1600 resistance band where a contracting triangle is forming on the 4-hour chart. Above 1.1600, upside targets extend to 1.1650–1.1685. Near-term support is at 1.1540 and 1.1500, with deeper structural support at 1.1465 and the 1.1400–1.1350 region. A consolidation range of 1.1670–1.1710 represents the desk's near-term central scenario.

Trend: Directional bias is constructively bullish as long as price holds above the 1.1465–1.1500 support band and medium-term moving averages remain supportive. Longer-term, the desk's forecast projects EUR/USD nudging toward 1.18–1.22 through late 2026, anchored by eventual Fed easing and a structurally weaker dollar story. The near-term risk is a hawkish surprise at Jackson Hole or a stronger-than-expected PCE print that stabilizes the DXY.

GBP/USD

Macro Drivers: GBP/USD is tracking higher with other pro-cyclical USD crosses in the absence of a UK-specific shock, consistent with the broad pattern of recovery off early-August lows as markets reprice the Fed's trajectory. BoE dynamics — a relatively hawkish starting point tempered by slowing UK growth and sticky services inflation — frame a choppy but mildly constructive medium-term picture for sterling. Key domestic data inputs this week include any UK-relevant spillovers from Jackson Hole rhetoric; Nationwide housing data is due next week and not a factor today.

Technical Detail: Medium-term GBP/USD analysis places key resistance around prior swing highs in the 1.29–1.30 region, with support near recent lows in the 1.26–1.27 area. Exact intraday levels are not specified in today's research data, but the pair is consistent with the broader USD retreat across major peers. The USD leg remains the dominant short-term driver.

Trend: GBP/USD is expected to trade choppy but mildly constructive as long as UK recession risks remain contained and the soft-USD narrative persists into Jackson Hole. With consensus shifting to gradual BoE normalization and a later-than-expected Fed easing cycle, sterling retains modest upside potential in the near term. A hawkish Fed surprise would be the primary downside risk for the pair.

USD/CHF

Macro Drivers: USD/CHF has drifted lower or remained range-bound in line with the broader USD retreat and EUR stability, with the cross mirroring DXY and EUR/USD moves as it typically does. The SNB has been managing CHF strength through a combination of rates and FX intervention, and with Swiss inflation relatively contained, the scope for additional aggressive tightening is limited. In the current calmer risk environment, safe-haven inflows into CHF are less intense, which mutes the downside pressure on USD/CHF. US event risk — PCE, GDP, and Jackson Hole — will drive the USD leg this week.

Technical Detail: USD/CHF is likely trading in the lower half of its recent range given firm EUR/USD and a soft DXY. No specific USD/CHF intraday technical levels are flagged in today's research data. The pair's behavior will be largely derivative of EUR/USD moves and the broader USD direction.

Trend: Baseline is sideways to mildly lower USD/CHF, contingent on the soft-USD narrative persisting and no abrupt risk-off event in Europe triggering safe-haven CHF demand. A hawkish Jackson Hole outcome or an unexpected European risk shock would be the primary upside triggers for USD/CHF.

USD/CAD

Macro Drivers: USD/CAD is drifting lower or range-trading in line with the broader USD softness, with the key domestic catalyst being Canadian GDP on Friday — a tier-one data point that will directly shape BoC rate expectations and CAD direction for the near term. The BoC remains in a cautious stance following prior hike cycles, and the senior loan officer survey and incoming data are being monitored for read-through to credit conditions and growth momentum. Oil price dynamics — not highlighted as a major risk today — remain a secondary CAD driver.

Technical Detail: No specific USD/CAD intraday technical levels are flagged in today's research data. The pair is expected to track USD broadly with a downside bias into Friday's GDP print if the soft-USD trend persists. The desk is watching for positioning into the Canadian GDP release.

Trend: Markets are positioned for CAD outperformance if Friday's GDP surprises to the upside and Fed rhetoric at Jackson Hole points to a more balanced or later tightening profile, which would press USD/CAD lower. A soft Canadian GDP print or a hawkish Fed surprise would be the scenarios that reverse this bias.